What each data type means
Historical actuals
Values up to and including 2024 are sourced from the named organisations (IEA, IRENA, IAEA, WSTS, BloombergNEF, GWEC). Each point carries a confidence rating. Drawn as a solid line.
Forecast values
Values from 2025 onward are the author's interpolation from published scenario ranges. Not direct quotations of any single forecast. Dashed line indicates forecast territory. Three scenarios available: conservative, base case, aggressive.
Scenario definitions
Conservative
Lower bound of published scenarios (typically IEA STEPS). Assumes slower cost reduction and limited policy acceleration.
Base case
Author midpoint from IEA APS, BloombergNEF base, IRENA/GWEC midpoints. Represents a plausible pathway given current policy commitments.
Aggressive
Upper-end scenarios (IEA NZE, IRENA 1.5°C, BNEF high case). Assumes accelerated cost reduction, strong policy implementation, early inflection points.
Coverage and units
Geography
All series are global. EV: global new car sales share (%). Solar/Wind: global cumulative capacity (GW). Nuclear: global operable capacity (GW). Hydrogen: global low-carbon production (Mt/yr). Storage: global annual deployments (GWh). Semiconductors: global revenue (USD bn).
Mineral demand index
Author-estimated composite, indexed 2024 = 100. Not sourced from any single publication. Proxies directional demand growth for the most relevant minerals per sector. Treat as illustrative.
Forecast confidence ratings
High
Near-term (1-3yr) forecasts for mature technologies (EVs, solar, wind). Published scenario ranges are narrow.
Medium
Medium-term (3-7yr) forecasts, or technologies where policy reversal risk is material (e.g. nuclear).
Low
Long-term (7yr+) forecasts, and all hydrogen forecasts. Hydrogen's published 2030 range spans 3-20 Mt/yr across IEA scenarios. Treat as directional only.