Stock Tests
Daily-bar strategy research
Retrospective model results for EP, post-EP pullbacks, Stage 2, VCP, Turtle, High Tight Flag and Volume Surge Pullback rules.
Strategy Lab
A single place for the site’s strategy experiments: stock strategy tests, suggested-trade review, crypto paper trading, stock ORB testing, and the EP/Turtle signal archive.
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Suggested Trades success
Forward trade-ticket follow-through
Tracks final stock and crypto ideas that were shown in the Daily Cockpit/newsletter and classifies what happened next.
Crypto Paper
MEXC momentum experiments
Forward fake-money tests for crypto scanner ideas, central fired-alert results, and a separate MEXC suggested-trades review at the bottom.
Stock ORB
Opening-range pressure tests
Tests whether the first QQQ candle gives repeatable intraday edge.
Signal Archive
Post-signal follow-through
Tracks what happens after EP and Turtle scanners flag a stock.
Stock test strategies—daily-bar models
Best stock expectancy—avg R / closed trade
Stock suggestions worked—forward stock tickets
Crypto paper equity—primary strategy
ORB variants—stock opening test
Archive filled rows—snapshot + Day 0
| Tab | Evidence type | Question it answers | Best use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Tests | Retrospective daily-bar trades | Do stock rules have edge? | Kill weak systems before cockpit use |
| Stock Tests → Suggested Trades success | Forward stock tickets | Did the stock ideas shown to me work? | Improve stock judgement/newsletter quality |
| Crypto Paper → MEXC suggested trades | Forward crypto tickets | Did the MEXC scanner ideas shown to me work? | Improve crypto scanner/trade-ticket quality |
| Crypto Paper | Forward fake-money trades | Can scanner alerts survive trade management? | Tune crypto rules |
| Stock ORB | Retrospective intraday test | Does opening candle pressure repeat? | Compare variants |
| Signal Archive | Post-signal measurements | What follows scanner signals? | Find follow-through or fade |
Strategies tested—daily-bar models
Closed model trades—all strategies
Best expectancy—avg R / closed trade
Best profit factor—gross R winners / losers
| Strategy | Trades | Win rate | Avg R | Median R | Profit factor | Total P/L | Return | Final equity | Max DD | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Strategy | Ticker | Signal | Entry | Exit | Exit reason | R | % return | Net P/L | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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How to read the stock tests
Expectancy is average R returned per closed trade. It is the headline comparison because it ignores account size. P/L remains in the table as a model-account context only, not the ranking metric.
Total checked—stock tickets
Worked—target / success
Hit loss—invalidated
Never triggered—no valid entry
No confirmation—touched but invalid
Unresolved—active / pending
Ambiguous—daily sequence unknown
Actionable—realistic model
| Clean result | Count | % of checked | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Strategy | Conviction | Sample | Mechanical triggered | Realistic actionable | Avg max run-up | Avg drawdown | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Date | Ticker | Clean result | Strategy | Conviction | Entry ref | Stop | Target | Latest check | Raw label | Max run-up | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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How to read Suggested Trades success
Worked means the daily-bar model says the suggestion reached target / worked after a valid trigger. Hit loss means invalidation was hit. Never triggered means no valid entry appeared. Ambiguous means a daily candle cannot prove target/stop order.
Primary bucket—MEXC paper trader
Primary equity return—fake-money P/L
Crypto Turtle return—4h breakout test
BTC regime—entry context
| Bucket | Equity | Return | Open | Closed | Win rate | Net P/L | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Strategy | Equity | Return | Open | Closed | Exposure | Max DD | New trades? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Total checked—MEXC tickets
Worked—target / success
Hit loss—invalidated
Never triggered—no valid entry
Unresolved—active / pending
Actionable—realistic model
| Clean result | Count | % of checked | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Date | Pair | Clean result | Strategy | Conviction | Entry ref | Stop | Target | Latest check | Raw label | Max run-up | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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How to read MEXC suggested trades
This is for scanner suggestions that were surfaced as possible crypto trades, not the fake-money paper trader’s auto-managed positions. It answers whether scanner suggestions actually followed through.
ORB variants—active models
Best total R—leading variant
Latest trade date—last session
Latest rows—recent results
| Variant | Trades | Active | Win rate | Avg R | Total R | Worst R | Best R | Avg MFE | Avg MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Date | Variant | Direction | Trade symbol | Exit | R | MFE | MAE | Context |
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Total archived signals—EP + Turtle
Filled snapshots—follow-through
Day 0 rows—EP opening
Avg ORB max gain—Day 0
| Strategy | Day | Filled | Avg return | Avg max gain | Avg drawdown | Pullback from high | SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Strategy | Setup | Signals | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Status | Count |
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